Election Forecasting and the Race to be Prime Minister












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            * Election Forecasting and the Race to be Prime Minister
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            As a politics student, the relentless coverage of the forthcoming elections in the United 

            caught much of my attention as it looks to be one of the country’s most tightly contested 
            predict elections in recent times. To shed light on the subject, last month Charles Univer
            by a guest lecturer, Mr Stephen D. Fisher, a professor in political sociology from Oxford 

            topic of the lecture was the role of election forecasting in the UK, with insights given t
            constant polling culture in the country, as well as some predictions from Mr Fisher himsel
            Important to consider, as was highlighted in the lecture, is the changing dynamics British

            seen over recent years, particularly since the last general election in 2010 which saw the
            government since the Second World War. It reflected a general shift away from the traditio

            system, and instead a rise in trend of the smaller parties such as the Liberal Democrats a
            National Party. It is this trend which is contributing in making the election on May 7th s
            the likelihood of a coalition increases, the dynamics between the parties becomes more and

            An interesting focus in Mr Fisher’s lecture was his examination of the different groups in
            and which parties are favoured by these groups come election time. For example, between Co
            Labour, the Conservatives would generally see voting leads in those over the age of 60, wh

            and those who work in the private sector. On the other hand, Labour traditionally sees fav
            aged below 30, minority groups, and public sector workers. Of course here also sees the in
            regional vote, particularly in Scotland where the massive rise of the SNP looks set to wip

            strong Labour vote in Scotland. It looks likely that the SNP will have a big say in the fo
            government, as I’ll show later when I discuss the predictions made by Mr. Fisher.
            In terms of the actual opinion polls in the UK, Mr Fisher gave an extensive outline of the

            behind them, the various types that exist, and also their tendencies and shortcomings. I h
            before the extent of factors that can be included in such opinion polls, and the importanc
            weighting given to each of these factors. For example, the results of voting intention pol

            change depending on the weighting given to track record voting, whether it be historical o
            other variant factors can be the extent of robustness checks and the restriction of the sa
            poll.

            Mr Fisher did state that usually most polls have fairly similar results, with another inte
            observation being that there tends to be a polling bias, with most polls tending to overes
            support for Labour, perhaps leaving them at a disadvantage to the Conservatives. YouGov wa

            as the dominant force in UK opinion polls, contributing 60% of the polls that come out. An
            importance proposed to the lecture audience was the question of whether people will vote a
            constituency or for a party in the broader schemes. This is where another new polling heav

            Ashcroft, which focuses more on this constituency question, and which may prove to be a be
            as was the case in 2010.
            So, taking all of this on board, what do the polls have to say about the elections on May 

            conclusions does Mr Fisher draw for the keen audience of students? Using very helpful visu
            form of a pie chart, the propositions and the facts are put forward. Ulster can effectivel
            either of the two large parties, according to our expert, if they need to make up a small 

            He also says that the Conservatives do not have as many potential coalition partners as La
            DUP (Democratic Unionist Party) and the Liberal Democrats being their only realistic optio
            it a smaller chance that David Cameron will be elected Prime Minister than Ed Miliband. Ag

            of the SNP is emphasised when Mr Fisher makes his final probability of the election result
            the likeliest outcome is that the Conservatives will be the largest party with 34% of the 
            (with 32%) will form a coalition with SNP and others to form a majority, with Miliband as 

            Considering the discussion of the electoral system and its current trends, and Mr Fisher’s
            knowledge on the dynamics of British politics, I wouldn’t argue with this prediction, and 
            whether these election polls have any truth or bearing when the voters go to the actual po