Scientist Jaroslav Flegr on the resurgence of Covid-19 ****************************************************************************************** * Scientist Jaroslav Flegr on the resurgence of Covid-19 ****************************************************************************************** A lot more should have been done to prepare for what we’re seeing now Well-known evolutionary biologist and parasitologist Jaroslav Flegr, who teaches at CU’s F [ URL "https://www.natur.cuni.cz/eng"] , anticipated in August that things weren’t going t hoped regarding the coronavirus. As of last week, cases jumped to record levels in the Cze marked turnaround from the situation just a few months ago. Professor Flegr says there is still a “small window of opportunity” in which steps can be can act to prevent infections from spiralling further out of control. But even in the best he says, we’re in for a long, tough winter. A lot of people thought back in May that the worst was behind us and that we had “won”. Wa It was not and at the time I believed that our institutions and people involved in fightin it. That we had not won but gained a bit of time, a reprieve, by adhering to tough lockdow also thought it was more than apparent that the moment we started lifting measures, that t come back. It’s a mistake that politicians and institutions did not warn people more that the problem that more – even after considerable financial sacrifice - would be required. People should to shore up psychologically, legislative steps should have taken, measures could have put for the autumn when schools reopened. A lot of people lived with the hope that during the summer the novel coronavirus would fad appeared to return largely to normal. But you’re saying it was a squandered opportunity. I think that it was clear that in the summer, with schools closed and a few anti-Covid mea that the spread would drop off, that there would be fewer cases and so on. But I think exp it would come back the moment that conditions convenient for the spread of the virus retur mistake, they must have known the virus would not disappear and that it was only a matter Yet many experts worked on gathering data, modelling contact tracing and smart quarantine like the government had plenty of tools with which to try and tackle the problem. That’s the thing: from the very start they should have increased the tracing system ten- o fivefold and should have tenfold increased diagnostic centres and labs for testing. No sma work unless you have scores of people by the phone diligently following up on contacts. Those levels should have been increased many times over: instead of a smart quarantine we pants quarantine” and we are just pretending to trace contacts of patients but instead the contacts actually traced is a mere sliver of the real number. At that point, there is very do and now transmission of the virus is set to jump significantly. At the start, it seemed like no one knew anyone who had caught the virus, then we started people who had it, say in the same firm but we didn’t know personally, now many of us know had it, if we haven’t had it ourselves. In short, this wave is a lot bigger than the one we saw in the spring. The only difference haven’t begun to die [in larger numbers] yet. We are rejuvenated after the summer and the weaker, selected strains of the virus which could avoid detection and quietly spread. But change: we will see stronger strains dominate and within two weeks we will see the number ICU jump, as well as fatalities increase. That’s similar to epidemiologist Roman Prymula’s view: he also suggested in an article tha going to get tougher… exactly what none of us wanted. Yes. Hospitals are going to be hit hard: within a week you will see an increase, within 10 people in the ICU and the week after, fatalities, I think. The unlucky candidates, those w intensive care or die, are already out there – they have already been infected. If the situation is spiralling out of control, what can each of us do now to try and preve stay safe? I imagine it’s pretty much what it has been all along: to wear a mask and so on Steps such as wearing a mask are the least we can do but we should always think ahead. If of a firm or any kind of facility, you should be thinking of contactless doors that open e contactless disinfection stations, single-use towels, to check one’s temperature at the en us can in some way help to defeat the epidemic together. I’m sorry to say, in my opinion, we can’t expect much from the government: in the spring m our own homemade masks; I think here we will have to come up with our own solutions as wel institutions – that should have been looking for solutions – didn’t. When it comes to pers I think we have to start with face masks: indoors [as is the rule now], at tram stops, at Everywhere there are people we should wear masks. I think restaurants should mainly be abo outside because if you eat indoors and spend quite a bit of time there, the risk is simply From the start it was about balancing two critical things: keeping people safe but also no the economy and peoples’ livelihood and increasing unemployment and making matters even wo balance this now, if we didn’t fully before? That’s the big unknown. What I think we can say is that there will be economic losses and of avoiding them. All we can do is to try and temper the damage. I think that if we don’t lockdown, the losses will be even greater. An uncontrolled lockdown will be more expensive run and will also last longer than if we had one that we planned [Editor’s note: on the ba quarantine] where we knew which sectors to shut down and when. We need to invest money in 1,000 crowns we invest now will save us 10,000 in the long run in the coming tough four mo be collateral damage but we can try and limit it – if we act. This Sunday, Israel decided it will reimplement for the second time a stay at home lockdow have seen resistance to shutting down the country again here. What do you think will happe I think things are going to develop in a way that some people will be afraid to go to work be hospitalised or have to stay at home because they are infected or in quarantine, kind o lockdown that will run its own course. We’ll find out which is costlier. I think the Czech pay dearly but we may serve as a warning example for others. To come back to steps you think should be taken… what about schools? You said just a few d the very least universities should shut classrooms and return to distance learning. Do you I do. Universities but also high schools should do this because they can and because dista something that they can do well. I think that the situation is now such that we should clo elementary schools as well. I think there is a window of opportunity – about a week – but be better if we did them immediately. If we don’t hit the brakes now and let Covid-19 spre over the next two weeks, Czechs will begin to see many more of their fellow citizens die. hospitals swamped with patients and life and death decisions being made in the hall. If we now, this is what we can expect. That reminds me of stories from New York where decisions about who would get a ventilator made over patients in the hall. That’s it. That is pure craziness. If the situation is as grim as you say, are there any brighter areas? Is there anything we about when it comes to Covid-19? For example, doctors now have a better understanding of t work… Doctors definitely know better now how to treat the disease. We also had weaker strains ov not much weaker and the stronger ones will return, but for now weaker, and after the summe vitamin D from the sunshine so our immune systems have gotten a boost. Right now we are st to better fight an infection, but a month from now it’ll be different again. Right now we resistant. We also know that there are a lot of smart and capable people around who helped and who kn themselves. We are independent when it comes to ventilators and face masks and we are a po comes to nanotech [Editor’s note: used, for example, in face masks to protect against the viral particles]. Those are all things that could help. On the whole, I think we are holdi lousy cards and it is going to cost us a lot before we get through the second wave. Regarding schools: how much will distance learning change how we learn in the future? I think it will radically change how people study at universities. And it will be a change It wasn’t a huge change for me personally, because I have been putting up lectures on yout and years. There it was important to set rules and guidelines and links and a reading list testing online. That’s one plus and it can be inspiring. While it’s been a long time since I myself comple (the '90s), I took an anthropology course broadcast from a university TV studio which coul a kind of a proto-distance learning. Even back then, it worked! Yes, I think it can change a lot and schools will also continue to innovate and improve. A lot of people are placing their hopes on a vaccine now but even if we see safe and effec become available, it will take thousands of planeloads to transport, and it will be some t returns to normal. What is your estimate? Dr Fauci in the US thinks late 2021, for example I don’t think we will have a third wave next autumn but it really does depend on a vaccine ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ Professor░Jaroslav░Flegr░(62)░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ Evolutionary biologist and parasitologist at Charles University’s Faculty of Science [ URL Perhaps best-known for his work on toxoplasmosis caused by the protozoan parasite. His wor The Atlantic [ URL " https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/03/how-your-cat-is- medicineandhealth.thisweekssciencequestions1"] . Prof. Flegr is the author of the textbook Litera prize. He is the author of a blog where he warned in August of the dangers of a Cov